Thursday, September 25, 2008

Mmmm... Patterns and Peppers

Nate Silver, the once infamous Kossack known as Pablano, is one of the best - if not THE BEST - of the aggregate pollsters. He's called them right more often than the other aggregates by far, so when he tosses love to individual pollsters that stand out above the rest, we should all pay attention.

Anyone who knows me probably knows that I'm far from being a math genius, but I get patterns. A useful metaphor to describe my mathematical perception is that I don't often see the trees, but I do see forests. I may not get the particulars of the equations, but I can see the patterns they form, and understand the concepts fairly well. Of course, the lack of understanding of the trees themselves tends to cast one's perceptions of the forests in doubt; if one knows the trees, one knows the forests even better. So yeah, I'm saying I can see this electoral forest, but I can't say I know it. I think I can say however, that Nate knows the trees damn well, so he also knows the forest damn well.

So, know this: stop believing your favorite polls and keep your attention focused on The Great Pablano!

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